War of the Waters

In the aftermath of Mumbai terror attack, I had read several publications suggesting that India should renegotiate Indus water treaty to hurt Pakistan. In other words India should use its leverage over Indus waters to threaten Pakistan and demand it to stop terrorism if it wants to quench its thirst. But is it really that simple? I started thinking that if it was that simple then why India didn’t do it a long time ago.
No, it is not so straight forward. The main variable in this equation is “China”. What’s common between Kashmir, Pakistan, Tibet, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Pakistan, China and India? It is the source of all problems in south Asia – water. The control of water and an ensured supply of water for its people and land is what every country is fighting for. Some are fighting it legitimately, some illegitimately and some by force.
The solution of Kashmir lies in the solution of the distribution of the Indus waters. India and Pakistan are trying to resolve this distribution since independence. The water of Indus valley originates in Himalayas in India portion of Kashmir. They flow from Kashmir to Punjab and Sind before converging in the Arabian Sea. Since partition Pakistan had always felt threatened that the fate of its people depends on India due to the geography of the water flow. After decades of conflict the World Bank came up with a solution in 1954 that the eastern tributaries the Sutlej, the Beas and the Ravi will be controlled by India and the western tributaries the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab will be in Pakistan’s control. Both countries accepted the proposal and signed Indus water treaty even though Pakistan always kept the reservation that the historical usage of water was not discussed the treaty.
Pakistan’s policy of opposing India in Kashmir and Punjab is motivated towards gaining more control of the sources of these waters which have created the largest irrigate area of any one river systems in the world. After liberation of Afghanistan from Russian occupation, Pakistan diverted the Islamic Jihad against India to achieve its ambitions of gaining control of the water. Pakistan was so motivated in its resolve that it resolved all its land conflicts with China to ensure that the China uses its leverage of the Brahmaputra that it controls since China’s occupation of the Tibet.
China’s occupation of Tibet has a lot to do with China’s hunger for energy and resources. China is already planning to block and divert river Brahmaputra, also called Tsandpo in Tibet. The Tsandpo begins its long journey at about 13,000 feet and drops to about 5,000 feet in eastern Tibet, before it enters India. China aims to use to drop as a source of hydroelectric power and a new source of water for the Yangtze River and parched northeast China. Proximity of Tibet with Indus waters also adds complexity to the over all situation. The consequence of this diversion will be huge for India and millions of people will starve to death due to lack of water and millions will relocate from eastern part of India and Bangladesh to rest of the India. If this is to become reality India will be left with only military option and would require a huge international support to give China a serious threat.
For an impartial international community support India cannot do the same to Pakistan that it doesn’t want China to do to it. And hence India has to abide to the Indus water treaty that was supervised by the World Bank, US and UK. The suggestion that India can use its control of water over Pakistan to force it to stop terrorism is short sighted and will hurt India’s position against China. India needs a strategic and diplomatic solution to counter China. If India can be confident to tackle China in the coming years then Pakistan will be of no match to India. We need a substantial injection of capital to strengthen our infrastructure and technology to tackle China, if needed.
India needs to increase its trade relations with China. India needs to ensure that we use highest level of diplomacy to change the anti India mindset in China. We need to find a strong leverage over China that can be used during diplomatic negotiations. But overall we need a stronger India mentally, economically, militarily and diplomatically to cross the tough roads ahead.

further reading:

The Indus Waters Treaty: A History

A published article in UPI Asia by Hari Sud

Tags: south asia